The increase is reversing trends seen just a few years ago, when a looming oversupply of the fuel, warmer winters and sluggish demand in power generation made it look like gas was only going to get cheaper and cheaper. While the role of crude in pricing European gas has diminished, it continues to be a key driver, according to RWE AG.
“If there is no big fundamental change like more LNG imports or some production increase, I don’t see a big movement coming” as long as oil continues its trend, Turri said. “I will expect this situation to stay for a while.”
Norway and Russia, Europe’s two biggest foreign suppliers, are already pumping gas by pipelines in “exceptionally high” volumes, according to Andree Stracke, chief commercial officer at German utility RWE’s supply and trading unit. The need for more gas than usual to refill storage sites means prices “are pretty steep,” he said.
Equinor ASA sees the depleted inventories as the main reason behind the current gas price rally, Peder Bjorland, vice president for marketing and supply at the Norwegian energy giant formerly known as Statoil ASA, said in an interview.
While some see Europe’s LNG imports picking up from this summer, demand in Asia remains high. That means the “wave” of LNG debated for years is still not coming, Stracke said on a panel at Flame.
Spot volumes of the superchilled gas are coming to Europe because traders prefer their price, flexibility and diversion opportunities to offtaking volumes under long-term contracts, Turri said. That makes it hard to forecast imports into Europe, he said.
A cold snap propelled prompt gas prices to record levels in the U.K. and the Netherlands on March 1. The outlook for the coming heating season will depend on temperatures, said Turri.
“If the winter is particularly cold, the situation could be potentially worse than last year,” he said.